Politische Reformen als Auslöser großer Wählerwanderungen: Das Beispiel der Gemeindestrukturreform in der Steiermark 2013-2015
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15203/ozp.2541.vol48iss2Schlagwörter:
Difference-in-Difference, Wahlergebnisse in der Steiermark, Gemeindefusionen, Reformen, VetospielerAbstract
Die Reformpartnerschaft aus SPÖ und ÖVP erlitt zwischen 2013 und 2015 in der Steiermark starke Verluste an den Wahlurnen. Vieles davon wurde als Folge der Gemeindestrukturreform dargestellt. Ziel dieses Beitrags ist es mittels einer Difference-in-Difference-Schätzung den Effekt der aus der Gemeindestrukturreform resultierenden Fusionen zu berechnen. Die Ergebnisse der Regressionsanalysen weisen durchgängig auf den gleichen Trend hin: Ein leichter Malus für die ÖVP und ein leichter Bonus für die FPÖ in fusionierten Gemeinden (jeweils rund 1-2 Prozentpunkte). Die SPÖ verliert durchwegs, während die kleinen Parteien (Grüne und KPÖ) nur marginal profitiert haben. Positive Auswirkungen gab es auch für Bürgerlisten, speziell dort wo der Protest am intensivsten war. Insgesamt zeigt sich aber, dass die Gemeindefusionen die starken Wählerwanderungen nur bedingt erklären.
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